OBELA

Los países latinoamericanos que mayor mejora obtuvieron durante el tercer trimestre de 2020 son los que continuarán creciendo en 2021. El desempeño económico se ve influenciado por el crecimiento previo, las restricciones para evitar el contagio de la covid-19 y las políticas fiscal y monetaria. 

En Costa Rica, Argentina, Jamaica, Ecuador y Chile hubo problemas de salidas de empresas grandes, disturbios sociales, dependencia en el sector petrolero y de turismo, por lo que son los de menor rebote durante el tercer trimestre de 2020. México recuperó poco menos de la mitad, tiene el mejor desempeño entre los que menos se reponen. Los que más mejoraron son Brasil, Nicaragua, Colombia y Perú.

Los principales riesgos a enfrentar en la mejora del 2021 son: la evolución de la pandemia y la disponibilidad de la vacuna; la retirada prematura de las medidas de estímulos fiscal y monetario; las condiciones financieras mundiales que permitan el acceso financiamiento barato; y la tendencia al alza de los precios en los productos básicos.

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) reflects the polarisation of world trade that accelerated with the trade war between the United States and China. It reinforces Asian regional integration and offers China the opportunity to increase the influence of the Renminbi (RMB). Since 2009, China has developed a monetary strategy that promotes its currency as a medium of international exchange. 

According to Swift, in October 2020, Chinese money accounted for a meagre 1.66% of transactions as a global currency. We have seen that the opportunity for the influence of the renminbi in Asia and in the world economy has grown, and the open question is why it is not yet a major currency. 

China's participation in global trade and investment builds confidence in the WBN, particularly in parts of Asia and Africa. However, even China uses the dollar in business and holds a high proportion of dollar assets, so it is unlikely to replace the dollar as the world currency in the short term.

The signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) indicates a strengthening of regionalism in Asia while in the West it is in decline.

By the end of the last decade, the trade order and multilateralism were already being questioned. Some elements caused the crack in the globalization process in the West. The trade war between China and the United States; the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union; the emergence of populist and conservative governments in Europe of a nationalist nature, among others.

Latin America is not a region free of similar processes. The Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR), one of the most important integration projects that has been developed in the region, shows slight setbacks in its integration process.

In the midst of the turbulence caused by the COVID-19 crisis, the world's largest free trade agreement (FTA) was signed. The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is made up of 15 countries. The new region represents a third of the world's GDP and population and 29% of world exports. 

Within the treaty, the following issues are addressed: trade, investment, financial and digital services, intellectual property and technological cooperation. Likewise, it is limited to a trade treaty and not an economic integration process, with free circulation of factors.

China wins a huge trade agreement that plants it as the new face of multilateralism, in view of the abandonment of it by the United States. International cooperation has taken a new dynamic with China at the forefront with long term regional planning.

he speed and effects of climate change create a crisis even more severe than the pandemic. The current trajectory of development has jeopardized the balance of the ecological system that supports it.

Due to the growing influence of humans on nature, biogeochemical cycles have been drastically altered and biodiversity has been reduced at a threatening rate. Causes include rising global temperatures. The Latin American and Caribbean region is mainly affected by climate change.

As a result of the pandemic, industrial activities, the number of flights and mass events have been reduced, resulting in positive but temporary impacts on the environment; however, there have also been other negative impacts such as the increased use of single-use plastics and the expansion of household and hospital waste.

The pandemic brings to the table the complex interaction between the systems of planet Earth and the current structure of social, economic and environmental policies.