OBELA Analysis

The economic crisis, the collapse of oil prices and the change in the energy matrix pose a danger to the oil industry. Low profitability is putting pressure on the big oil companies to change their energy production, and the environmental cost of the sector is gigantic.

The large global oil companies have begun to look at clean energy as a business alternative, as well as to recognize the need to seek new ways of profitability and to maintain the environment.

However, the evidence that the oil industry's efforts to enter green energy are not enough. The disproportion is still great if one compares the total investment with that invested in clean energy, which is greater than 20%.

The growth forecasts for the world economy at the beginning of the year were optimistic. At the end of June, world production is projected to be -4.9% (IMF) -5.2% (World Bank) and -6% (OECD). According to the president of the World Bank, Malpass, the year 2020 is the worst in terms of growth since the crisis of 1929 and possibly since the long depression of 1872.

The impact on growth dynamics has been global. However, the experience of the pandemic in emerging economies is far from that of advanced economies. The question is why Governments with greater fiscal and monetary capacity to implement counter-cyclical policies have similar growth outcomes.

The challenges are to generate an economic renaissance that promotes employment, sustainable agriculture, shortening global value chains, increasing the use of renewable energy and discovering a vaccine and treatment that are universal and free.

During the pandemic, the United States and its institutions have taken measures that have had an impact on providing liquidity to the international system. In Latin America these have come through the IMF but also through agreements with the US central bank (FED).
In the context of the bankruptcy of companies, hotels, restaurant chains and the loss of investment grade, the US has seen a doubling of dividends per share versus earnings per share in banking. In these conditions, stock markets have, on the contrary, shown a strong recovery, even reaching new highs (Nasdaq).
The increase in liquidity by the FED and the central bank has allowed the stock exchanges to recover without a recovery in production, and high levels of unemployment, low levels of consumption and destruction of production, in a contradiction that leads to an increase in the already existing inequality.