OBELA Analysis

There are at least four axes to look at in 2025. One first is the conflict between the great powers, where the US increased its offensive against China's production and trade. The trade war unleashed in March 2018 by Trump himself will have diverse consequences for the world. The second axis is climate change, which will have an impact on the prices of the food basket. It is an already present issue aggravated by drought floods and climate change in general. The third is the continuation of the open attack on international regulatory institutions by Washington. The fourth axis is the energy competition between the great powers and its derivative effects.

The trade agreement between the Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) and the European Union (EU) has been in the works for over two decades. It seeks to create one of the largest free trade zones, not only limited to tariff reductions but also to add investment regulations and an environmental commitment. This article will analyse the potential positive effects of the treaty, assess who it favours with its approval and estimate whether the European Union will approve it.