OBELA Analysis

Globally, inflation closed 2021 at its highest level in the last twenty years (40 years in the case of the US) and projections indicate that during 2022. However, even if it is lower than last year, we will continue to see it high in 2022. Why is it a top concern for governments, central banks and consumers?

Governments are concerned that central banks will speed up the normalization of interest rates in the face of high inflation rates. This would put a brake on economic recovery and job creation and, in some cases, would cause the deterioration of the fiscal balances of some countries that acquired debt to mitigate the effects of the economic contraction or slowdown.

The strategies followed by governments and central banks to control inflation will determine the economic conditions of the coming years and the ability of the world to recover from the economic contraction of 2020.

The rebound of the world economy was the great feature of the year 2021. Anticipated as strong rebounds, they were less strong for some than for others. Governments that injected money into public investment improved their recovery more than those that did not.

2021 has been the one with the highest inflation in the world since the 1970s with Brazil, Turkey and the United States leading the way, but followed by everyone else. The consequence is that central banks around the world initiated interest rate hikes as a way to contain inflation, so the GDP growth rate in 2022 will be very low overall.

It was a good year of economic rebound, but at the cost of high global inflation that central banks will have to face in the years to come. The recovery was rapid due to increases in government deficits and debt, and even so, spending still does not contribute to economic growth.

The energy transition in Latin America has the structural problem that has been dragging on in the region for ever: the lack of capital. To solve this, external financing has been the main driver of the change in the energy matrix. 

The main financiers are the Export-Import Bank of China, the China Development Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), the Development Bank of Latin America (CAF) and the U.S. Agency for International Development, in that order.

It should be noted that the Caribbean Basin is mainly financed by the USA and South America by China. Although the U.S. finances renewables more than dirty energy, in terms of amounts it does not compare with the Asian economy. External financing for renewables is vital for Latin America's energy transition. It should not be forgotten that Latin America is a disputed territory and the control of renewables is key.