Latin America's continuing drought

The summer of 2024 in the northern hemisphere shattered all-time temperature records in numerous regions, marking it as the hottest on record. This unprecedented event, extensively documented by various agencies and sources, is a clear consequence of climate change driven by human activities. In this article, we will delve into the implications of these extreme temperatures in exacerbating meteorological phenomena and their far-reaching consequences in Latin America.

August 2024 saw an average temperature record of 16.82°C, 0.71°C warmer than the average from 1991 to 2020. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service that month was 1.51°C warmer than pre-industrial temperature levels and is part of a string of 14 consecutive months in which the global temperature exceeded pre-industrial levels by 1.5°C.

While temporary exceedances of the 1.5-degree warming threshold may not immediately signal danger, it's crucial to recognize these short-term spikes as a critical warning. If significant emission reductions are not implemented, these higher averages could become more frequent and prominent over the next decade, posing a serious threat.

The 12-month period from September 2023 to August 2024 is the warmest on record, with a temperature of 0.76 °C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.64 °C above pre-industrial levels. So far in year 24, temperatures are the highest for that period, and it would take a dramatic drop of 0.30 °C in the coming months for 2024 not to overtake 2023 as the warmest year on record, something that has never happened before.

Prolonged dry spells, a direct result of high temperatures, have led to a severe drought. According to the World Meteorological Organization's State of the Climate in Latin America and The Caribbean report, almost all of Mexico, central Chile, the western and eastern Amazon, the central and southern Andes, as well as much of Central America, central Venezuela and the Guianas, were affected. This is a cause for serious concern as most nations have been affected by water shortages.

According to the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, the frequency and duration of drought periods have surged by 29 % since 2000. If this alarming trend persists, it could potentially impact over three-quarters of the world's population by 2050. This underscores the urgent need for immediate and effective climate action to avert such a crisis.

The water situation in South America

According to figures from Ocote, more than 379 million hectares in Latin America, an area more than three times the size of Colombia, are degraded, so these lands can no longer support crops or their natural ecosystems. In addition, 36% of Latin American territory comprises arid ecosystems, characterised by lower biodiversity and more challenging conditions for human life.

Between 2013 and 2023, the Amazon region will lose nearly one million hectares of freshwater, according to a study by Mapbiomas Agua and Red Amazónica de Información Socioambiental (RAISG). This decline, largely attributed to climate change and human activities such as deforestation and land use, affects ecosystems and local communities that depend on water resources. Colombia was the most affected country, followed by Bolivia and Peru. Andean glaciers have also shrunk drastically, worsening the water situation in the region.

An intense drought in the Brazilian Amazon and Pantanal has caused the Paraguay River to reach its lowest levels in more than 100 years at Asunción. This severe drought has significantly affected transport on this vital river route, posing a challenge to trade in a country with no direct access to the sea. The last time the river reached such low levels was in 2021 when it dropped to its lowest point on record at 0.75 metres below the "zero index".

The consequence is the difficulty of river transport, which presents itself as a situation analogous to the Panama Canal. Paraguay is a landlocked country with the third largest river fleet in the world. The river of the same name is the route responsible for moving almost 80 per cent of Paraguay's foreign trade, connecting it to neighbouring countries and the Atlantic Ocean. The choking has forced a reduction in the amount of goods carried by ships.

On the southern stretch of the river, heading towards Argentina, convoys carry 70 per cent of their usual cargo. Heading north, where the currents come from Brazil and Bolivia, the vessels carry less than 50 per cent of the cargo. According to Raul Valdez, president of the Centro de Armadores Fluviales y Marítimos de Paraguay (CAFYM), the transport of minerals from Mato Grosso del Sur in Brazil is practically interrupted. The goods transported on the Paraguay River will fall by 29 percentage points compared to 2023. This situation is similar to that experienced by the Panama Canal during the year 2023, which caused price increases due to the difficulty of transport, so that it might have similar consequences.

The Paraná River, which feeds several hydroelectric plants, also faces problems due to the lack of rainfall. Specifically, the Itaipú dam, located between the border of Paraguay and Brazil (which generates energy for both countries), has presented a reduction of 18.4%in its generation during the first half of 2024 due to the water crisis. China experienced a similar problem in 2022 when the lowering of the YangtzeRiver led to power outages in several cities in southwest China.

Brazil, meanwhile, is experiencing its worst drought since national measurements began more than 70 years ago. The situation affects 59 per cent of the country's territory or roughly half the size of the United States. Major rivers in the Amazon basin have deficient levels, while wildfires have ravaged protected areas.

Fire epidemic

South America has reported thousands of fires in 2024, and many are still active, from Brazil's Amazon rainforest to Bolivia's dry forests. This situation has caused the region to reach a record number of fires in one year, with a total of 346,112.

The forest fires experienced in Brazil are the most intense in the last fifteen years. According to the Brazilian National Space Research Institute's Burn Programme, during the second week of September 2024, Brazil accounted for almost 76% of the areas affected by fire in the entire South American region. Climate change has boosted fires from agricultural activity, doubling the number of fire outbreaks compared to those recorded in 2023 during the same period in early September.

For their part, Bolivian authorities have declared a national emergency due to the flames that have consumed 3.8 million hectares since July 2024. Of the burned area, 40 per cent is forest, and the remaining 60 per cent is grassland. So far, the fires have caused severe damage to six of the 11 ecological corridors recognised as Ramsar sites, which are critical areas for the conservation of biodiversity globally, according to Tierra Foundation.

In Peru, the fires that started in July 2024 have devastated ten thousand hectares of forest and archaeological heritage. Some 1,495 hectares of crops were lost, 1,264 were damaged, and 2,257 hectares of natural cover were destroyed. Between 14 and 15 September alone, 91 forest fires were recorded nationwide, according to the Peruvian National Forestry and Wildlife Service (SERFOR). In Paraguay, the National Forestry Institute (INFONA) reports that between 1 and 12 September 2024, more than 318,000 hectares have been affected throughout the national territory.

The disasters mentioned have caused a severe atmospheric situation not only for the areas affected by the fires but also for a significant extension of territory within South America. Heavy smoke and a dense smoke layer were reported in several cities, affecting visibility and air quality.

Data from IQAir, a Swiss air technology company, estimated that during the first days of September 2024, the Brazilian city of Sao Paulo breathed the second most polluted air in the world due to smoke from forest fires. Days later, smoke covered several provinces in Argentina with smoke from eastern and northern Amazonian Bolivia . In Uruguay, the health authorities advised people with chronic respiratory or cardiovascular diseases, allergies, or other risky conditions to reduce their exposure to smoke from the fires in neighbouring countries.

The loss of biodiversity, crops and commercial crops can be accounted for shortly, but as can be seen, the outlook could be more encouraging. The high temperatures recorded so far this year are a sign of climate change generated by human activity, which, together with lax or non-existent environmental protection policies, have created the perfect environment for forest fires to advance. The need for climate action is urgent, not only for the region but for the entire planet.